With the slowdown in the global economy, there is some uncertainty about the year ahead for ethical & sustainable industries. At the end of the first month of 2009, Organic Monitor (www.organicmonitor.com) gives its predictions on its specialist industries for the year ahead.

Natural Cosmetics
Global sales of natural and organic cosmetics are increasing by over $1 billion a year. As for organic foods, most demand is concentrated in Europe and North America. Preliminary research shows that European sales exceeded $2 billion for the first time in 2008.

Healthy market growth rates are continuing in 2009, with most growth observed in mainstream retailers like supermarkets, drugstores and pharmacies. Retailer private labels are a major driver of market growth; a growing number of retailers are launching certified natural & organic cosmetics under their private labels, offering consumers low-price quality products. However, some rationalisation is expected in 2009 due to a large number of brands competing with private labels for retail shelf-space.

Fair Trade Products
Consumer demand for fair trade products continues to strengthen in spite of the economic slowdown. Preliminary research indicates that global fair trade product sales exceeded $3.5 billion in 2008.

Growing consumer interest in social and trade issues involving developing countries is driving market growth. Retailer investment is stimulating production of fair trade products; a number of European supermarkets have converted their entire supply chains of certain products to fair trade. The fresh produce category is tipped to show the highest growth in 2009.

Natural & Organic Ingredients
Slowing demand from food processors, cosmetic companies and other end-users is bringing supply in balance with demand. After experiencing several years of undersupply, ingredient prices are expected to decline in 2009. Increased globalization of supply chains is predicted to continue as large ingredient companies spread their production bases.

Organic Monitor also expects sustainability to become increasingly prominent in 2009. Natural & organic product companies are at the forefront of adopting sustainable and ethical business practices. This development is leading to some convergence between product sectors. Indeed, many new organic product launches contain fair trade ingredients. The number of carbon neutral companies is also expected to increase in 2009.